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As
the talks between the elected representatives of the
people of ‘Northern Ireland’ and the British
State are about to begin, there seems to be little
doubt that the overwhelming majority of the nationalist
population of the six Counties hope the talks will
conclude with the political process at last being
placed into forward gear. During the period of the
PIRA ceasefire most impartial observers feel that
the decommissioning of PIRA weaponry has been promoted
to a position way above its actual importance to the
success of the Peace Process. Nevertheless the leading
Unionist Party's have insisted on using this issue
to stall any movement forward as far as implementing
the GFA in its entirety is concerned.
No matter how Mr Adams and his SF colleagues have
attempted to navigate their way around this roadblock,
they have found it un-navigable. The responsibility
rightly or wrongly is always being placed upon them
by both the Unionists and the British Government (so
much for them being an impartial mediator), via this
issue as to why the process keeps stalling. As far
as decommissioning is concerned, even if PIRA were
to make another substantial act, it would in all probability
still fail to satisfy the DUP and UUP, nor a majority
of those they represent.
Thus
the only sure way that this process can move forward
is to forget about decommissioning altogether at this
stage. As I have said, this on, off, drip, drip, of
decommissioning arms will never fully satisfy the
DUP/UUP nor their constituency. In any case the process
of decommissioning has always put the cart before
the horse. If the leadership of the Provisional Republican
Movement genuinely believe that their participation
in armed struggle has reached its conclusion and from
now on democratic politics will be more advantageous
for them in achieving their movement's objectives,
and, as they seem to have implied, they feel the time
is now right to proceed solely with this strategy,
surely they have no option but to bite the bullet
and issue the order to stand Oglaigh na hEireann down,
along with a command to dump arms in an ordered and
disciplined manner.
Due to the longevity of the IRA ceasefires, few Irish
Republicans, beyond the small groups such as RSF and
the remnants of RIRA, who both follow in the long
and indeed honourable tradition of physical force
Republicanism, will disagree with any decision to
stand the (Provisional) IRA down. Although some may
wonder why it has taken quite so long once Mr Adams
reached this conclusion to act upon it. As far as
the Unionists are concerned, once the IRA is stood
down, they can hardly continue to use PIRA or the
weapons it once held to refuse to embrace fully democratic
accountability, for the plain and simple reason the
IRA will no longer exist. The onus will be upon the
Unionists to join with the elected political representatives
of their Nationalist/Republican neighbours and implement
change.
As to the argument coming from within the nationalist
community for the continued existence of PIRA, i.e.
without them to protect the community they will come
under increasing attack from the loyalist para-military's
such as the UVF and the UDA/UFF. There is little doubt
that many feel there is a certain substance to this,
however if one analyses the number of people who have
been murdered during the last ten years some interesting
facts emerge. In the last ten years approx. 173 people
have been murdered in what the police regard as 'terrorist'
related deaths. This figure, in comparison to the
previous ten years when the number killed was 870,
show a dramatic drop in the numbers of people who
lost their lives in this manner since 1994. Of those
killed between 1994-2004, 30 were suspected of being
the victims of Republican organisations whilst 143
where suspected of being carried out by Loyalist.
If we add to these deaths two of the most publicised
areas of conflict between the two communities during
the last ten years, the physical attacks and kerbside
abuse of children on their way to school at Holy Cross
and the uproar that was provoked by the police trying
to force through a loyalist march on the 12th in Ardoyne,
it is not making a major jump from reality to suggest
that the presence of PIRA has not deterred the UFF
and UVF from murdering Catholics adults nor even from
abusing Catholic school children.
It is worth considering whether it is possible that
PIRA, as it is currently constituted, i.e. neutered
by the SF leadership from carrying out any operations
that will leave footprints back to the overall Republican
Movement, has been instrumental in emboldening the
loyalists. They are well aware of the importance that
Mr Adams and his leadership have placed on the GFA;
they also cannot have failed to notice the arm-lock
the Adams leadership have placed on PIRA operations.
It is not an unreasonable conclusion to draw that
an Irish Republican Army that fears the displeasure
and sanction of the British government is little better
than useless. Whilst its leadership to date have maintained
its cohesion and discipline, it can only be a matter
of time if it carries on as it is currently constituted,
when this discipline will break down and it will turn
on its own constituency. One should not underestimate
the fact that many of today's volunteers are what
the IRA old timers call ceasefire soldiers. The only
active service many of these people have seen is when
they have been called upon to 'discipline' members
of their own community. This may well be taking its
toll on the psychology of these volunteers. To conclude,
if the IRA is not at long last stood down, its leadership
will be proving right those of its Republican critics
who claimed that once the Adams leadership took over,
PIRA was never more than a defence organisation for
the nationalist people of the six counties. Its raison
d'être was one of equality for all the people
of the six counties, not the completion of the national
revolution.
The number of people killed in the last ten years
by armed Loyalist and Republican groups was taken
from, "Ten
years on: the difference the IRA ceasefire has made",
by David McKittrick
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