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Comrades,
I'd like to spend some time to review the peace process,
look at why the events of the last week happened,
i.e. decommissioning the calling of elections and
the breakdown of the sequencing events and the position
that the ERPS should take towards all of this.
There
are many complex reasons why the Provisional Republican
Movement (PRM) went down the peace process road. War
wariness, the steady loss of volunteers, particularly
in Tyrone, the recognition of the futility of violence,
a better understanding of the position of the unionist
population, the higher body count of the loyalists
coming into the nineties, personal ambition, disquiet
at the increase in sectarianism are all possible reasons.
It
does no one any credit if in our movement we question
the sincerity or genuineness of the PRM. After all
that movement waged a war against theBritish for approximately
25 years and forged the most effective guerrilla army
certainly in Western Europe. It is clear that their
leadership calculated that there was more to be gained
by taking the political road rather than the military
road.
Once
having decided that there was a cold remorseless political
logic that led to the major acts of decommissioning.
The
engaging in the affairs of Ireland by the Clinton
administration opened up the way for the Provos to
take the political road. Furthermore the collapse
of the old Soviet type communism now meant that Imperialism
and capitalism were in the ascendancy and revolutionary
movement had to face the new realities.
The
victory over the Soviets gave capitalism a new lease
of life and it now began a concerted attack on publicly
owned resources. The introduction of public private
finance initiatives is not just a local thing, it
is worldwide. The drive for privatisation is fuelled
by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund
and other international bodies.
This
affects the politics of Ireland. The close relationship
between the USA and the Free State Government clearly
shows how closely interwoven are the policies of both
countries. The Celtic Tiger economic miracle was announced
on the same day as the first IRA ceasefire. The link
between economics and politics is obvious.
The
splendid isolation of Ireland from the real economic
world took some time to penetrate into the Unionists.
For years protected by the indifference of the Westminster
Government the Unionists grew arrogant and dictatorial.
They used sectarian fears to bolster their rule and
openly advocated and practice discrimination against
the Roman Catholic population.
When
all this was blown apart by the rise of the civil
rights movement and the extent of the resistance of
the oppressed they were incapable of resisting change.
Direct rule, not a British first option was instigated.
The GFA was all about creating the conditions for
the shared Government of NI between Unionists and
Nationalists, which with increasingly stronger cross
border links would satisfy nationalist aspirations
while not encouraging unionist fears. It was also
a way by which Britain could begin a process of disengagement.
For
the PRM the advantages of this approach are obvious.
The isolation from the media and the world stage that
they suffered in the eighties was gone, they are now
major players, they are within sight of overtaking
the SDLP as the main nationalist party they have a
growing influence in Southern politics and are attracting
the support and votes of increasing numbers of young
people. Further more they have still held onto their
army despite three major acts of decommissioning.
Growing disillusionment with the corrupt politics
within the 26 county state means they will attract
growing support and even more votes. They may hold
the balance of power in the South which means they
could be Government both North and South within the
next three years. That is what drives them; the pursuit
of power because it is actually within their reach.
Is that not something worthwhile from their perspective?
Trimble
and Adams have both come out of this strengthened
in one way. Trimble can say he got the IRA to decommission
3 times and that he withstood pressure from both Blair
and Ahearn to cut a deal.
Adams
can say he for filled his part of the bargain, can
deliver, and that the unionists reneged on an agreed
deal. Also part of the Sinn Fein strategy was to split
unionism. It has now been never more divided.
There
is no doubt that the war is over, that the PRM have
settled for a democratic settlement within the six
county state with a view to continuing their struggle
by constitutional means.
However
while we may speculate and theorise the reality is
that elections for a new Assembly are now on. The
elections are about electing negotiating teams not
a government. Immediately after the elections regardless
of the result there has to be a review of the GFA.
It is quite possible that in the event of all sections
of Unionism refusing to share Government with Sinn
Fein the British and Irish Governments could move
towards making Joint Authority a viable option.
What
should be our position in all this? First of all the
immediate question is the one of elections. As I see
it we have only limited options.
In
al of these there are opportunities and difficulties.
It is up to the membership to make their voice heard.
But there is not enough political input to the movement
by the membership. We tend to leave others to do the
hard work. There is not enough effort to develop policies
that have some relevance to the lives of working class
people. I could go on and make a large number of criticisms
of our faults, but that would be negative and we need
to develop a culture in the Party of positive forward
thinking as to what we can and should do. People in
this room may have in the past put their lives on
the line in the struggle for national liberation and
socialism. Some of you may have been shot tortured
or jailed.
To
make sense of those sacrifices we need to begin now
and march forward towards seriously getting involved
in electoral politics. That should be our short-term
goal, training our membership to be prepared to put
our politics before the people in all parts of Ireland.
While the assembly elections may not be the time to
do it because I see this as the final working out
of the GFA then after that we should come out with
all guns blazing to use a metaphor and put the authentic
voice and polices of Republican Socialism before the
Irish working class. What should our vision of that
Republican socialism be? The end goal as I see it
is the creation of as democratic a society as possible,
politically economically and socially where each individual
has the opportunity to develop their potentiality
to its fullest extent.
Gerry
Ruddy is an IRSP Ard Comhairle member.
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