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The
Whitehouse has become adept in recent years at expressing
typically American over optimism with regard to our
problems in Northern Ireland. Since the ascendancy
of the Bush administration it has befallen the besieged
Richard Haas to drop in here from time to time to
reassure us that we have the support of our transatlantic
cousins. It therefore spoke volumes last weekend when
the Whitehouse released a brief but terse statement
simply expressing their “concern” at the
results of last weeks poll.
Therefore
the sincere, yet naive contentions of Fr. Sean McManus
in the last edition of THE BLANKET have done little
to enhance my vision of Irish America’s perception
of the actual situation in the six counties.
Whilst
we were all fully aware of the reasons why the British
were extremely reluctant to proceed with last weeks
poll, we now have a full blown illustration of their
fears in doing so.
The
results are indicative of many things, but foremostly
reveal that due to the ascendancy of the DUP and Sinn
Fein that stalemate has been cemented into this process,
even before any speculative talks to re-ignite the
executive have been launched. The young guard of the
DUP lead by Peter Robinson for all their bullish verbal
intransigence have made tentative suggestions that
they are prepared to talk to Sinn Fein. Yet the stone
wall attitude of Paisley senior, although regrettable
and always predictable has effectively scuppered any
realistic chance of a quick resolution to these ills.
While the old man of Unionism still possesses breath
and enough grey matter to at least feign a denial
of senility or CJD, he may not change his mind. His
threat to expel anyone who dares to engage with republicans
from the DUP has yet to be examined for his actual
right to do that. However while he is still around
it is extremely unlikely that any party mandarin will
be bold enough to incur the wrath of this threat anyway.
Ian senior’s grabbing of UTV reporter Ivan Little’s
coat collar at the count centre in Ballymoney, whilst
comical is still indicative of the depth of bitterness
engrained in his ageing but still strong heart.
If
we couple to this the fact that both the British and
Irish governments are rigidly adamant that the fundamental
kernels of the agreement are not open to re-negotiation,
and the DUP as the largest party, are demanding re-negotiation
then the intractability of this situation at least
doubles it’s significance.
The
upbeat contention of Sinn Fein that the DUP are currently
in the same position as the UUP were five years ago,
that is they were not prepared to talk to Sinn Fein,
is not really fooling anyone. The fact is that spin
on this occasion is akin to tilting at windmills,
the DUP are by no means cut from the same cloth as
the UUP. All participants are aware of this fact.
The
difficulty in this is also manifested in the fact
that the political process is not the agreement, the
assembly is not the agreement and the executive is
not the agreement. The political apparatus that enacts
or enforces the agreement has always been the problem
with this since 1998. The failure of the “extremes”of
Unionism and Nationalism to co-operate willingly at
any genuine level has been the fundamental flaw of
any attempted power sharing arrangement. This is due,
as said before, due to the fact that the GFA enshrines
sectarian politics as it demarcates this situation
along these divisive and labelled lines. In all societies,
as this, political parties that are at the edges of
the political spectrum, or are at least perceived
to be by their electorate, will always come to the
forefront in elections on such crisis fuelled occasions.
The greatest example of this was Paisley’s election
to the European parliament in 1979 amidst the backdrop
of violence in one of the most torrid years of the
troubles. In that election as he did in subsequent
years Paisley polled the largest winning margin of
victory for any candidate on the whole continent.
The DUP notoriously demonize and scare monger as a
tool of the political outlook. However this time around
they were practically assured a victory of this nature
via the gift of the fumbles and botches made by Trimble’s
failure to solidify his position as party leader,
never mind unite the UUP behind him. The spectre of
the unholy trinity is still lurking in the shadows.
In fact Jeffrey Donaldson is starting to resemble
a well fed jackal, lying on his back, paws in the
air and his tongue lolling from the side of his mouth,
just after a particularly satisfying scavenge.
I
have heard incredulous interviews on southern radio
stations with members of the public, who although
again sincere, cannot fathom that the combined forces
of Sinn Fein, the UUP, SDLP and The Alliance party
can form an interim junta to oust the DUP. D’Hondt
and the assembly does not work in that manner. The
majority party still hold the whip hand in all this,
nothing can proceed without their say so. The ridiculous
thing in all of this is that an election that did
not actually count for anything has produced a result
that proves just how unworkable this agreement actually
is. The fact that people cannot understand this also
illustrates the emotional nonsense used to sell this
heap of tripe to the whole people of this island.
It is simply devoid of policy content that contains
a molecule of sense, whilst it still entrenches a
Unionist veto and the guarantee of Unionist supremacy.
Fr. Mc Manus’s contention that Sinn Fein’s
electoral success will virtually assure that we cannot
return to the past in respect to these Unionist guarantees’
is misguided. If he believes that a nationalist mandate
will not be disregarded, and that the British declaration
of relinquishing any selfish or strategic interest
in Ireland actually holds any water at all then I
am afraid his reliance on Sinn Fein propaganda has
infected an obviously intelligent mind.
In
addition claiming that Unionist politicians and “their
paramilitaries” must accept the rise of Sinn
Fein as the death knell of the old Northern Ireland,
then Fr. Sean is simply adding insult to verbal injury.
Perversely a substantial section of mainstream Loyalist
paramiltarism has already accepted the fact that the
(P) IRA is over. David Irvine for example has already
offered a more realistic analysis of the decommissioning
farce, by simply stating that the best method for
destroying weaponry is rust. It surely must be obvious
that the singular focus on the destruction of “Republican”
arms is proof positive that the Unionist/Loyalist
agenda is still in the prime postion. For all his
conciliatory verbage, David Irvine’s erstwhile
UVF colleagues have not destroyed one single bullet,
but still he offered a more solid contribution than
any so-called constitutional Unionist political party.
However whilst the inextricable link of Sinn Fein
to the IRA is constantly mooted, who has really questioned
with any force the PUP association to the UVF?
Neither
does this account for the rentention of the RUC with
a change of name and the presence of British troops
in the North, less visible though they are, and their
weapons that are construed as legal and for the protection
of us all.
The
displacement of the SDLP as the main nationalist party
was also quite predictable. If nothing else comes
from this debacle for Sinn Fein they at least have
shaken that particular monkey off their back. Evidence
of this assured victory was displayed by Gerry Adams
generous helpings of sympathy and support to any SDLP
representative he encountered in TV appearances, in
the post election analysis. The fact that Sinn Fein
harnessed all the worth that came from portraying
themselves as the hard done by poor relation in all
of this, was a very clever ploy. Since Adam’s
said that the war was over on October 25th, without
actually using those words, has enabled his party
to demonstrate their “sincerity” towards
the process. The image of Sinn Fein as the perennially
down trodden Fenians, with whom Unionist’s refuse
to share anything, certainly sent SDLP voters in their
droves to switch preferences on their ballot papers.
It is also plain that they picked up substantial amounts
of transfers from pro-agreement Unionists eager to
keep the DUP at bay. Just think what they may have
achieved if the election had actually counted for
anything. Further still, a change of the old guard
of the SDLP and their complacent party attitude in
the past few years, together with their questionable
selection of candidates in certain areas, all contributed
to their demotion.
In
the post poll atmosphere the SDLP are trying to project
the message that they are confident that their lack
of success is a temporary blip. They are convinced
that a re-jigging of party attitude and personnel
will provide the requisite reinvigoration required
to take them back to pole position in the Nationalist
rankings. What they have failed to account for was
the fact that they can no longer lazily rely on voters
to poll for them simply based on the notion that people
will vote SDLP rather than vote for a violent nationalistic
party.
Those
days have long gone and are not going to return via
the Provisional’s. The consequent failure of
the SDLP to develop any coherent strategy or policy
based on more than their adherence to non-violence
has come back to bite them on an ever thinning party
backside. You simply don’t pamphlet that you
are 100% behind a united Ireland and expect people
to believe it. This was especially silly considering
the fact that it is a considerable period of time
since a single SDLP representative actually mentioned
this sentiment.
It
is less than a decade since John Hume boastfully declared
that we were living in a post-nationalist Europe.
It may have been effective in his demonstration of
how we could proceed without violence on the road
back to Stormont, it isn’t anymore.
As
said relying wholly on votes via continuing IRA violence
and failing to develop a replacement vote catching
policy has finished the SDLP as the mainstream voice
of nationalism forever. Promises of party restructuring
and the consolidation of the nascent generation of
the SDLP vanguard will do little to assuage the fears
of their now former voters.
It
is worth mentioning also that Hume’s post-nationalist
assertion came bang in the middle of the Balkan conflict
of that period.
But
then the SDLP were always selective in considering
who could be in their gang. I would venture to suggest
that the SDLP map of Europe ends at Strasbourg, anything
else after this is painted bright red and simply called
the Communist east.
The
irony involved in the fact that the non-violent voice
of nationalism has been replaced by those who have
recently discovered constitutionalism, is almost off
the scale. It will be all the more galling for the
SDLP if Sinn Fein use this undoubted period of dead
lock to make the jump to the acceptance of the policing
proposals. They can now claim a truly commanding mandate
to back this up, even if that mandate is denied any
actual political expression. In addition they can
always sell this thorny issue to any recalcitrant
voters by telling them that they are going to have
to do it as further evidence of their sincerity in
the quest to make the GFA work.
Without
the demise of Ian Paisley it is difficult to see even
a shard of light at the end of this gloomy tunnel.
As
I have already said a coup within DUP ranks is as
likely as Shergar’s entry in next seasons Grand
National.
Therefore
despite almost immediate denials in the wake of the
election results, it is likely that Paul Murphy will
find himself having to call fresh elections at some
stage next summer. These elections could be potentially
harnessed to the local council elections due at that
time anyway.
Again
this indicates the farcical nature of this accord
from the outset. I vividly remember the day that the
referendum took place in 1998. In my mid twenties
and armed with two university degrees, I was working
as a part time shop assistant in a local shop on the
hourly wage of £2. 80 an hour. If you are to
believe that political education is mostly shaped
by your familial background then I was SDLP cannon
fodder if there ever was one. I was bereated quite
badly by all those at home, when I declared that my
intention was to vote against the agreement. I tried
explaining that since I was the only member of my
family to have actually examined the document, that
I could see that there was nothing in that had not
be tried and had failed before. I also tried explaining
that there was a world of difference between the candyfloss
PR presentation of the desire for peace, a la Van
Morrison, and the cold political reality of trying
to dismantle a British occupation held in place by
the Unionist ascendancy. After various heated discussions
along the lines of what would I know, we were in the
streets in the 1960’s, fighting for rights, I
reminded them that if they had kept them specially
for my 30th birthday then I would prefer to have them
now! I remember very nasty arguments when accusations
of bitterness were thrown my way by my own family.
I won one that by reminding them that I was not the
one, who was shot during a riot, who proudly boasted
of their involvement in making petrol bombs whilst
a secretary in the old Nationalist party and whose
parents and many other relatives were active IRA personnel
stretching back to the War of Independence. These
stories, similar to a lot of other people’s,
by the way encompass the lineage of both my parental
lines. I heard them a thousand times before in all
situations, and I could not understand why after years
of raising me to not follow the herd if I thought
it was the wrong thing to do that they were doing
exactly that on the back of a few sickly TV adverts,
and not on the basis that they were highly intelligent,
politically astute individuals.
I
realised quickly that behind the anger was a pained
desire not to have a phone call or a knock on the
door in the middle of the night informing them of
my untimely demise. There was no truth in their accusations
anyway. Believe me when I say that my I really don’t
care which side of the religious line anyone hails
from. Still it illustrated that they had not forgotten
the force of the state they had felt and witnessed
first hand, and the discussions that were held showed
not only the depth of the PR job foisted on us all
in this period, but perhaps was a reminder to the
previous generation that despite the fact they had
fought to ensure that people like myself actually
had access to things that they had not, that in effect
that nothing had actually changed at all.
They
did not want to witness more burials of young people
at the end of the 1990’s as the had done at the
outset of the 1970’s and again in the 1980’s.
For a wish such as this no one can be blamed. This
agreement I contended however was not the panacea
that they were being made to believe it was, in fact
it was tantamount to the opposite of that.
The
PR men pinned a lot on this analysis;they were sure
that after thirty years the majority of those over
35 would snap at any chance for peace, even if was
merely an absence of violence, not real peace at all.
That
we find ourselves in this situation has in no small
part been the responsibilty of Sinn Fein. As Mick
Hall asserted in the previous edition of THE BLANKET,
I too lauded the actions of a once proudly radical,
streetwise and unashamedly Republican party.
I
have no issue with the abandonment of violence in
achieving political ends, but I remain unconvinced
by the often mooted argument that the via dual TUAS
strategy Sinn Fein bombed their way to the negotiating
table. I remain unconvinced because of the suggestions
like those of Liam O’ Comain that it is one thing
to jettison militarism yet it is entirely another
to abandon the flip side of the dual approach;ie;the
political ideals that accompanied the bullets. I object
wholeheartedly therefore with the manner that this
strategy was sold and, whilst I see no value in continuing
violence I find it extremely hypocritical for Sinn
Fein to publicly lambast those now called dissidents.
I have little or no time for these organisations but
I do realise that a proportion of their membership,
albeit it very small, are sincere in their outlook,
however misguided the use of violence at this point
actually is.
Furthermore
the demonisation of all those voices who dare to speak
out against this current situation are tarred with
the same brush, ie;rabid supporters of terror, is
pathetic, when this is simply not the case.
As
ever in all of this it is the accompanying and deafening
silence from Leinster House, which should be no surprise
to any of us but which serves to show the totally
ineffective attempts made by Irish governments since
1998, and the eighty years prior in stamping any authoritative
policy towards removing the British presence in the
north. At the very least letting six county Nationalists
know that they have at least have allies in “legitimate”
government in the south, is something which seems
to beyond them. In times of crisis condemnatory and
sabre rattling rhetoric was once plentiful, but has
dissipated at a pathetic rate in recent years. They
may not actually feel they have to any more, since
I again would echo Mick Hall’s assertion that
Sinn Fein have become the SDLP mark two. Additionally
I would contend that whilst this is true in the north,
in the south they are very little short of becoming
Fianna Fail mark two as well. If a recent story repeated
to me by a journalist friend is true then it at once
encapsulates the attitude of the current Irish government.
It relates to a recent Fianna Fail Ard Fheis in Killarney,
when asked of his thoughts on the six counties, An
Taoiseach, in full ear shot of SDLP MLA Eddie Mc Grady,
replied “Fuck the north, I have more to worry
about. ”Unsubstantiated as it is , no one who
reads this site could doubt the intentions of the
comment, if this allegation is true, no one would
be very surprised either.
We
will doubtlessly trundle on towards another cobbled
rehash of this mess. Even as I write this I am checking
BBC news websites and seeing that already the Rev
Dr. Paisley is appearing a touch more conciliatory
from the nonsense he spouted last Thursday and Friday.
An indication perhaps that a velvet revolution to
oust the 78 year old leviathan may be under way after
all. However I can also see the seriousness with which
the Brits are treating this development, as Blair
has just said that the current impasse does not precipitate
a security crisis here. Perhaps he knows something
we don’t.
I
simply know one thing. That we will have to remain
steadfast and resolute in our faith in the precepts
of true British Democracy!!!
That
is if they don’t like the result they get, they
will keep holding elections until they get the result
they do like, despite the fact that 170, 000 people
did not even bother to register to vote this time
around.
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