Over
the years since the second ceasefire, the PIRA has
gone about its business. And why wouldn't it? It
had not been stood down but is in ceasefire mode,
during which it was up to the politicians, including
those associated with the Provisional Republican
Movement (PRM), to reach an agreement that would
have allowed it to take the one final step the overwhelming
majority of the island of Ireland's electorate wished
it to and stand itself down in perpetuity.
Thus during the ceasefire it has done those things
armies do in periods when they are not fighting
wars or occupying some poor soul's Nation. Administrative
matters such as raising finance and maintaining
internal discipline, restocking its weaponry, enhanced
its security abilities and training its volunteers.
Indeed much the same as the British Army in the
north of Ireland has been doing during this period,
Why anyone would now claim to be surprised at these
on going activities is a mystery to me. Nor can
there be any real surprise on the part of the two
governments that much of what PIRA has been doing
has had an element of illegality about it. What
did those who made the ceasefire agreement with
the Provos expect them to get up to during a ceasefire,
play tidily winks? Unlike the British Army they
do not have a tax base through which they are funded,
so how else did those who are now professing shock
and horror about the PIRA's continued involvement
in illegality believe the Provos funded themselves,
bring and buy and jumble sales? None of this illegality
seemed to matter when British government representatives
first started negotiations with the PIRA to bring
this war to a close. Nor when British civil servants
helped their political wing Sinn Fein's Minister's
administer the six counties under the terms of the
GFA. So why has it suddenly taken centre stage?
It is difficult not to conclude that this current
brouhaha has arisen because the Provos have allegedly
stolen the property of Mr Big. By robbing the Northern
Bank they stole the money of International Capital,
the big boys on the block; and as far as Blair and
Ahern are concerned this is a step too far. Just
as it was not until the Provos targeted the city
of London that serious peace negotiations came about,
it seems they are to be curtailed because the Provos,
not realising the game had moved on since Canary
Wharf, had repeated an attack on the corporate world,
Blair and Ahern's main benefactors. Before any reader
scoffs at this, I would remind them that during
the years of the ceasefire, the PIRA has killed
a number of individuals, one of whom was a former
volunteer who was beaten to death and it is said
had his tongue cut out to highlight the fact that
he was regarded as an informer. Plus a member of
the Garda Síochána was murdered whilst
going about his duty. Indeed only this week in Belfast
a group of Provisionals, who got into an argument
whilst out late night boozing, allegedly called
up reinforcement and a man acting as a peacemaker
in the argument was done to death in the most brutal
manner.
However it seems little of this mattered to our
gallant Irish and English political leaders. It
was only as I have already said when the Provos
allegedly got their fingers into the till of International
Capital that all bets were off. No matter that it
is just as urgent to reach some sort of agreement
now as it was all those years ago when this peace
process charade started. Not only is talk of freezing
out SF dangerous nonsense, it is far from original;
those who advocate it can hardly claim such a tactic
by the governments has worked in the past. During
the years of the bloody war in the north, this tactic
was tried over and again. Indeed, it was about all
that was tried politically. I'm sure I do not need
to go over all the failed attempts to block the
PRM from the political process and bolster Sinn
Fein's political opponents within the nationalist
community. Save to say they all failed and due to
the undemocratic and farcical nature of many of
these attempts, they deserved to.
When Adams and McGuinness claim their party has
a political mandate and the two governments must
respect this, they are correct. Despite the fact
that the deal which was on the table in December
has been rejected, this mandate still exists and
should be treated with the respect it deserves by
all parties. It is not for governments to decide
which political parties should be shown more respect
and tolerance than others; that is for the electorate.
If Blair or Ahern meets the SDLP or Unionist parties
to discuss the north's problems, then SF should
and must also be included.
How
can this situation move forward? Well, the sabre-rattling
statement by the leadership of the PIRA shows there
is turmoil within that organisation as to the direction
it should go in. If it were to go back to war and
it is still a formidable Organisation, we would
all be in for some difficult days. However, it is
hard to see how it (PIRA) could improve its current
position by returning to the battlefield, especially
if you factor in the current mindset of the post
9/11 Western world. In any case at some time in
the future it would still be forced back to the
conference table. Although, if the RM were to opt
for war, the current SF leadership would have lost
all credibility, having spent the last seven years
telling its electoral base the GFA was the only
game in town. It is also doubtful whether those
younger members of SF, who have joined the party
post-ceasefire would stick with it. They are only
too well aware that Ireland cannot be reunited on
the end of a bayonet, nor can equality be brought
to the nationalist people of the north by the same
method.
Perhaps Mr Adams' desire to avoid a split has been
too ambitious and his attempt, as noble as it is,
to keep all on side is an impossibility. Although
as I have complimented Mr Adams here, I feel it
is only correct to point out that his Republican
critics believe his desire for unity only stretches
to those who agree with his strategy. Nevertheless,
if the PIRA had been stood down in the traditional
manner with the order to dump arms being given,
some senior volunteers may have gone off to form
another outfit or join up with Continuity or the
Real IRA. But looking back there was and even today
is no mass support for these armed groups within
the Nationalist communities; a sneaking admiration
perhaps for sticking to their guns, but that is
as far as it goes. The vast majority within these
communities realise, if the PIRA over a thirty year
period, with all its funding, dedication, international
contacts and stamina was unable to drive the British
from the six north east counties, then these smaller
republican groups are unlikely to be able to do
so. It also cannot be stressed enough that this
community has believed SF when that party has said
the future lays with the Ballot Box, not the Armalite.
This leaves SF, not for the first time, between
a rock and a hard place. If it is to move forward
politically, then PIRA needs to be stood down. There
really is not any other option that would be acceptable
to the other parties involved in this conflict,
nor the communities from which they come. For if
PIRA remains active, then only one of two things
can happen to it. It will either descend into an
ever-increasing spiral of criminality, which will
disgrace the good name of all those volunteers who
have been through its ranks; or it will be forced
to return to war to find military tasks for those
currently engaged in criminality. Both of these
options will be a disaster for the Republican Movement
and more importantly, the people who live in the
six counties and the rest of the UK. I have no doubt
that elements within the Unionist community cannot
wait for the Provos to reach for the Armalite option.
The question we are all asking ourselves is, will
the Army Council be dim-witted enough to dance to
these people's tune or will they finally show some
Generalship?
