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A
week ago, to those expecting significant political
change in Israel following the upcoming general elections
on January 28th, I would have suggested not holding
their breath. Then, there was little chance that the
elections would change anything. One would ask why,
considering the high degree of dissatisfaction among
the Israeli public towards the political system, political
parties and politicians. With such disappointment,
one would expect the electorate to lash out, to actively
seek change, to try and pull itself out of the political
mire caused by Netanyahu, Barak and Sharon. After
all, the Israeli economy is on a disaster course (10.5%
unemployment, growing poverty, projected negative
growth, rising inflation together with a deepening
recession), over the past two years the Israeli army
sunk to unprecedented levels of brutality towards
the Palestinian people, radical parties on the right
are gaining strength, particularly those whose platform
calls for the “transfer” of Palestinians.
One would expect these elections to deal with these
and many other utterly crucial issues facing the Israeli
public. But before the campaign has even started,
it is clear that for the most part, the parties, particularly
the larger ones, will try to refrain from dealing
with the key issues in a clear and coherent way, seeking
rather to blur their stances on these issues.
The
only glimmer of hope comes from an unexpected source
- the Labour party and its newly elected leader Amram
Mitzna. Mitzna gained a landslide victory over Binyamin
(Fouad) Ben Eliezer, former party leader and Minister
of Defense under the national unity government. Mitzna
presented a fairly radical position during his campaign
(highlighted by the repeated promise to end Israel’s
occupation of Palestinians), and gained a great deal
of support for his positions. Members of the Labour
party clearly signaled to its leadership that they
have no interest in becoming a warmed over version
of the Likud, as was the case under Ben Eliezer. An
interesting trend can be found in the Likud: there
is clear support among the members of the party for
a Palestinian state. In a recent non partisan poll,
44.8% (7.3% undecided) of the registered party members
of the Likud responded positively when asked “If
Ariel Sharon is elected, would you support his intention
to reach an agreement with Palestinians, including
Palestinian statehood and ‘painful’ compromise?”
[The intention here is to the dismantling of settlements
- MD]. (Ha’aretz Daily, 21 November 2002,
p. 4a.). Internal Likud polls leaked to the public
note that 70% of the party members are not against
Palestinian statehood (Ha’aretz Daily,
22 November 2002, p. 2b).
The
patterns that are emerging from the daily polls in
Israel are quite clear. Parties that address the main
issues in a concrete way will be strengthened after
the votes are counted. Parties like Moledet (running
together with other far right parties), where the
main component of its platform is the “transfer”
of the Palestinians is expected to gain many seats.
Why? Not because the Israeli people as such are particularly
cruel, but rather because they are offering a solution
that purports to solve many of the problems in Israel
today, as despicable and unacceptable as it may be.
The same can be said of the party Shinui whose platform
is virulently anti religious. In a country where public
debate has been all but choked by the power of a constructed
“consensus”, it is the role of the parties
to introduce clear ideas, innovations and solutions
to the public. Parties that fail to do so will be
considerably weakened, while those that offer viable
alternatives will be strengthened.
In
an attempt to appeal to the “center” and
to those that are yet undecided, campaign experts
will likely advise both the Likud and Labour to blur
the issues, to present a centrist position. Parties
on the political left are facing a challenge - to
present a brave and innovative platform in the space
of two months. They need to make clear, beyond any
shadow of a doubt, that the situation in Israel today
is a direct result of the 35-year-old Occupation.
These parties must convince the Israeli public that
continued Israeli presence in the Occupied Territories,
the continued expansion of the settlements and the
brutal actions of the army and the settlers will eventually
destroy the country. This is not an easy or popular
message to get out, but it is the truth. It is Mitzna’s
task to rise to this challenge and to provide brave
and courageous leadership for the left. If he rises
to this challenge, there is a chance, albeit slight,
that Mitzna can become Israel’s next prime minister.
Having stated that he is willing to form a coalition
with the Arab parties in the Knesset if elected, Mitzna
will enjoy both public and political support for courageous
decisions. Of course, a series of bombings and attacks
prior to the elections will play into the hands of
the right, particularly Netanyahu (described as the
“prince of hatred and darkness” by a senior
Likud member), who has made a career dancing on the
blood of innocent people.
Lately,
there have been calls from the far left to boycott
the elections or to cast a blank ballot. The goal
of this strategy is clear - to contribute to the rise
of a far right government whose radical actions will
finally convince the public as a whole to support
the left. Palestinian Israelis, disappointed with
the Arab parties’ ability to bring about significant
change of their 2nd class status as citizens, are
also calling for a boycott of the elections. While
one can understand the call for a boycott of the elections
- a call borne out of the despair of the public on
the far left - it is clearly mistaken and misguided,
particularly when there is the chance of alternative
leadership. It is also dangerous and irresponsible
to leave the leadership of the country in the hands
of the radical right.
A
few short weeks ago, the results of the upcoming elections
were fairly clear - Sharon as Prime Minister and a
paraplegic unity government. With the election of
Mitzna this has changed, or at the very least, there
is a potential for change. If the parties on the left,
led by Labour under Mitzna fail to rise to this challenge
they will be contributing directly to the downward
spiral of Israel. If they fail to present a crystal
clear message and programme to the Israeli public
they will be betraying their leadership role - it
is the leadership that is expected to point to the
path, not to blur it. It is the leadership that is
expected to help shape public opinion rather than
be guided blindly by it.
*
Dr. Michael Dahan is an Israeli American political
scientist living in Jerusalem. He can be reached at
mdahan@attglobal.net
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