A friend rang last night. He wanted
to pass ten minutes discussing the recent elections.
He suggested that the results in the Republic would
strengthen the social democratic wing of Sinn Fein.
Perhaps if the partys military leadership were
withdrawn from the equation it would be a reasonable
assumption to make. But in a leadership-led party
where authoritarianism is the centre of gravity, the
social democratic wing has yet to show that it has
either the will or the capacity to face down the right
of centre leadership. Nevertheless, if democratic
impulses are to pulsate to the point of causing fault
lines then the resulting cleavage will be along reformist
vis a vis authoritarian lines. Radical impulses, if
they are to avoid being suffocated altogether, will
need to take root elsewhere. Not that the party is
without radicalism. Even in a conservative city like
Belfast smatterings of radicals beaver away. At every
turning point, though, the radicals have failed to
turn and the conservative leadership presses on having
called the radicals bluff yet again.
There
is of course the wing constituted by the partys
militia. It however has no politics other than what
Sinn Fein tells it to have. Thats what happens
in social movements where the only ideology allowed
to flourish amongst the grassroots is leadershipism.
If the order comes down from above to expel blacks
and gays from West Belfast the militia will be there
doing its duty, chanting in unison, Ireland
for the straight Irish. If the party organises
a bomb Iraq rally, the militia, in their
pressed green shirts, will lead the parade. And in
case we are of a mind to forget that it remains in
business, the election campaign seemed to have been
well and truly pronounced over when some unfortunate
was beaten to a pulp in South Armagh. Votes in the
bag it was time, presumably, to administer a little
peace therapy to recalcitrants in the community. Now
we just await someone who categorically denies ever
having been in the IRA to categorically deny that
Sinn Feins militia were involved -- then we
will know for sure that it was.
While
some of the gloss was taken off the Sinn Fein electoral
surge by the re-emergence of Fine Gael, written off
by so many only two years ago, it would be miserly
to denigrate the success of the Adams party machine.
As Malachi ODoherty has argued there is no point
whining that the electorate made a bad judgement.
Thats what elections are for. The electorate
has the right to make a choice others would prefer
it didnt. Sinn Fein has the same right as every
other party to go before the people. If the opposition
isnt up to the task, too bad. As Brecht might
suggest, get a new party, not a new people.
In
a refreshing change of tack for a politician, Bertie
Ahern said Fianna Fail lost the election and Sinn
Fein won. Not technically accurate but his drift was
there for all to see. No waffle about how such defeats
are really victories in disguise, or the people
have voted, the bastards. The bulk of what Aherns
party dropped was not swooped on by Adams team.
It is estimated that well under a half of Fianna Fail
council seats went to Sinn Fein. The bulk went to
Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens the potential
Rainbow Coalition. If this is coupled to the phenomena
of Sinn Fein not having eaten into the Labour vote
the signs of a future trend are emerging. Sinn Feins
growth potential lies to the right rather than the
left.
For
long it has been felt that Sinn Fein would do what
its predecessors in the Workers Party did and graze
on the vote that traditionally sustains the parliamentary
left. In that little intellectual bubble Sinn Fein
could safely be corralled and there was little difficulty
in placing a cap on the rise of the party once
it had exhausted the reformist left vote it would
peak. At most it could expect would be a few bums
on ministerial seats as a junior partner in a coalition
government. But if the share of the vote obtained
by the party two weeks ago carries through to the
next general election there is no reason
why Sinn Fein cannot emerge with 14-15 seats in Leinster
House. Under its power driven leadership, fuelled
by the imperative of expansionism, there is no chance
of it seeking to bed down, cuckoo-like in some comfortable
but limited niche for the Left.
Adams
has called for a left alternative. This is an attempt
to use other parties to form a useful beachhead from
which later assaults can be launched. Rather than
Sinn Fein becoming the Left it will, once sufficiently
positioned, move to outgrow the Left by shifting right
in order to appeal to a wider constituency. It is
what power-chasing parties do. It will then seek to
challenge the Left, showing the traditional Fianna
Fail constituency that it can do what Fianna Fail
did, only more efficiently. In an Ireland where left
radicalism fails to offer any serious challenge, for
those who hope to see an Ireland where draconian laws
are out and human rights are in there are much worse
things than Sinn Fein being led by social democrats.
Being led by who leads it now is one of them.
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