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In
the aftermath of the May 17th General Election in
the Republic, the landscape has radically changed.
But why? Not one of the commentators and pundits got
the results of either last year’s Westminister
election in the North, or the more recent southern
General Election, even remotely right. A close examination
of each party’s campaigns and subsequent fortunes
will reveal one answer…
1.
The relegation of the SDLP to second-fiddle status
in 2001’s British Westminister Elections
The
wilting of the SDLP before the aggressive nationalism
and militarily-efficient electioneering of Sinn Féin
was a cause for concern amongst all the “Establishment”
parties across the island from the UUP to Fianna Fáil.
Clearly, young northern nationalists were unimpressed
with the SDLPs soft-focus “Why Can’t Everybody
Get Along?” style of politicking - despite (or
perhaps because of) the fact that the SDLPs 30-year-old
policy stance was, and is, the core of both the GFA
and Sinn Féin Nua’s revisionist platform.
A combination of an old, tired leadership; a perception
of being too weak-willed in negotiation with “the
enemy”; the blatant confusion in seeking to remain
the largest Nationalist party while talking about
“post-Nationalist Ireland”; and quite hopelessly
out of date PR and electioneering tactics resulted
in the SDLP getting mauled. Despite their outstanding
achievements in getting their entire policy platform
into the GFA and ratified by both Governments and
all the people of Ireland…
2.
The collapse of Fine Gael
Once
the party of rural conservatives (in a fiscal and
law-and-order sense), large farmers and the remnants
of the Aristocracy, FG in the 1980s under Garrett
Fitzgerald allied their core vote with the new urban,
liberal, professional classes in Fitzgerald’s
“Constitutional Crusade”. The strategy took
them to new heights, almost overtaking Fianna Fáil
as the largest southern party. But the contradictions
inherent in such an alliance, while concealed under
the reign of a popular leader, were never resolved,
and have torn the party asunder ever since. Unsure
whether it is a Social Democratic party in the European
mould, a Christian Democratic party or something else
entirely; shackled to an increasingly unpopular extreme
Europhilia; and tainted by association with the negative,
inferiority-complex-ridden bewailings of the Revisionists,
Fine Gael is a party that has seriously lost its way.
Yet another case of a confused message and a lack
of an identifiable platform of principles leading
to electoral suicide.
3.
Labour Adrift
For
decades, certain commentators have been predicting
the end of “Civil War Politics” in the Republic.
The merging of FF and FG or the collapse of one of
them (preferably FF!) would herald the long-awaited
“re-alignment of Irish politics” into a
“standard” Left-Right model so familiar
elsewhere. According to this thesis, Fine Gael’s
collapse should by right have led to a triumph for
the one truly Social Democratic party in Ireland,
Labour. But as we know now, Labour stayed stuck in
neutral. Not only did Labour fail to increase their
overall tally of seats from 21, but two of the party’s
leading lights, Dick Spring and Derek McDowell, lost
their seats. Clearly, the electorate did not see in
Ho Chi Quinn’s “Champagne and Salmon Socialists”
the social-democratic alternative to Fianna Fáil
that they were looking for. The bitter truth for Labour
must be that under Quinn they have become bland, boring,
centrist pragmatists. Standing for nothing in particular
with a weak and uninspiring message, only party loyalty
saved Labour from Fine Gael’s fate this time
round.
4.
Green Growth
No
longer the chaotic, bumbling, middle-class hippies
of yesteryear today’s Green Party is organised,
with a much more comprehensive policy platform and
a range of well-dressed articulate young candidates.
Moving squarely into the “conscience of the middle-class”
market that until now had been sown up by Labour the
Greens surprised everyone (including themselves) with
their haul of 6 seats. A coherent and comprehensive
package of policies and a professional, modern electioneering
approach paid huge dividends for the newly-confident
Green Party.
5.
PD Revival
Written
off by just about everybody before the campaign, the
PDs played a blinder. Their election literature, delivered
to every home in the country, unashamedly claimed
credit for the boom years and spoke directly to the
“Tiger Cub” generation of affluent young
professionals, while at the same time warning anyone
who would listen of the dangers in giving FF the dreaded
“overall majority”. Another case of focused,
targeted niche marketing with a clear message providing
spectacular seat gains.
6.
Sinn Féin Storm The Barricades
Or
so the party press machine would have us believe.
As the Greens moved into Labour’s “conscience
of the middle class” territory, SF were doing
exactly the same to Labour’s old disaffected
working-class constituency. A formidable on-the-ground
machine, highly visible presence in poorer areas and
clear distancing of themselves from the “established”
parties who had all, without exception, abandoned
the poor to their fate during the Tiger years paid
off handsomely with 5 Dáil seats.
Here
we can see, in action, the very opposite of the mistakes
made by the SDLP, Fine Gael and Labour. The public
is tired of bland centrism, and especially tired of
that brand of centrism that has infected the mainstream
Irish parties in recent years. The brand whereby politicians
will refuse to give a straight answer on the basis
that on no account should you antagonise any special-interest-group.
Having a reasonably coherent set of principles (even
bizarre ones!), that inform a broad range of policies,
and sticking to that message in the full knowledge
that it annoys some people, is plainly appreciated
by the electorate. Even Fianna Fáil, while
running a fairly cautious campaign, also made it clear
who they were standing to represent this time round
and “to hell with the rest of ‘em”.
The firm stance taken by FF in Government on such
matters as tax individualisation and the taxi drivers
was obviously remembered and appreciated by a large
section of the electorate on polling day.
So
much for 90s style “Third Way” style-over-substance.
The public has seen it and decided they don’t
like it. The parties that failed to put together a
coherent platform, based on core ideals/principles/beliefs,
and marketed aggressively all either collapsed or
drifted. The parties with such a platform - from Sinn
Féin to the Progressive Democrats - were lauded
by a grateful electorate.
The
real lesson of recent Irish elections - one apparently
lost on the media, the SDLP, Fine Gael and Labour
- is that when it comes right down to it, Substance
Rules.
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