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The
recent signal from Gerry Adams advising the Provisional
IRA to disband should not come as a surprise to anyone
familiar with Sinn Fein politics nor indeed, should
sceptics within unionism and elsewhere doubt his sincerity.
Ever since Mr. Adams and his supporters took control
of the Provisionals in the early eighties, their direction
has been away from armed conflict and towards parliamentary
politics.
There
is a clear and unbridgeable contradiction existent
between supporting armed insurrectionism and pursuing
the path of parliamentary reformism. Theoretically
and in practice, it is impossible to maintain a foot
in both camps indefinitely. Danny Morrison may have
spoken of a strategy of armalites and ballot boxes
but in reality his proposal was rhetoric to lull the
faithful rather than a guideline for action. Neither
London or Dublin would ever invite Sinn Fein to play
a part in any administration while the party supported
a war to overthrow the status quo. Moreover, no political
party with electoral and parliamentary ambitions could
hope to improve its position while denied access to
vital media and broadcast outlets, as was the case
for old ‘non-conforming’ Sinn Fein.
With
the ceasefire of a decade ago, Sinn Fein met the criteria
insisted upon by the two governments for inclusion
within the parliamentary process, with all the attendant
advantages of media access and prestigious meetings
that this brought. Both governments have known for
some time that the IRA has no intention of returning
to war but its existence could not be denied nor officially
condoned. The organisation did, nevertheless, pose
an imaginary threat to the established order and this
was constantly seized upon by reactionary unionism
in order to justify its refusal to share the administration
of Northern Ireland with Sinn Fein.
Faced
with this impasse, the Sinn Fein leadership has known
for some time that if it is not to see direct rule
from London continue into the indefinite future -
with all the implications that has for the party’s
image and prospects – that the Provos must be
disbanded. Confronted with the option of either maintaining
an almost redundant army or advancing with its party
agenda, there was never any doubt what would happen.
Gerry Adams has now spoken and the ‘Boys’
will file obediently out the back door and into history.
There will remain almost certainly, a small cadre
of people sympathetic to the Sinn Fein party with
access to firearms but this clandestine group will
act more as a security detail than a machine with
insurrectionary potential.
Whether
the demise of the Provos will provide a speedy return
to Stormont rule remains a moot point. The DUP is
not anxious to surrender its current advantage over
David Trimble’s UUP and sitting in an executive
with Gerry Kelly and Martin McGuinness might tarnish
the implacable face of Paisleyism. Peter Robinson
and his colleagues will design a few more hoops for
Sinn Fein to jump through. Joining the Police Authority
might be just one of several.
Still,
if Gerry Adams can advise the Provos to disband with
so little fuss, his party can surely digest anything.
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