The
moat around Leeds Castle contained the water to
which the obstinate horse of Northern Irish politics
was brought. And stubbornly true to form, it could
be made to drink by none. Are we all that surprised?
Dare any in our midst conjure up the chutzpah to
feign disappointment? Like the action replay in
a soccer game, the outcome is always the same, no
matter how many angles it is viewed from.
Observers
of the peace process, those who have by now acquired
a highly developed sense of stoicism and are still
able to observe it, must be tempted to view it as
HL Mencken once did a Theodore Dreiser novel: ‘the
thing rambles, staggers, trips, heaves, pitches,
struggles, totters, wavers, halts, turns aside,
trembles on the edge of collapse.’ Yet it retains
its inexhaustible capacity to try the patience of
world leaders, has been the alpha and omega of heads
of governments - there when they assumed office,
still there, implacable and insatiable, when they
left. It has, as the journalist Ed Moloney pointed
out, lasted twice as long as World War Two.
And
yet it continues to be pampered. Lies and nonsense
are called creative fudge or constructive ambiguity.
Public money that could otherwise go to health services
and social amenities is thrown at politicians and
the plethora of salaried bureaucracies/community
groups in which they bury themselves. Prime political
time is devoted to the peace process in outsize
quantities. It is said that Tony Blair has visited
the North of Ireland thirty three times as Prime
Minister. Has he been in his own constituency as
often? Iraq certainly has not seen as much of him.
It
is symptomatic of the staleness that plagues Northern
Irish political life that the political class has
now produced as its main negotiators two men who
have led their parties for almost sixty years between
them. Had Leeds Castle not been cleared of its unpleasant
guests in time to allow for a real wedding to take
place, leaving the DUP and Sinn Fein to enter wedlock,
Frankenstein and his bride would have lurched out
and headed back to the bridal suite at Castle Stormont
to consummate the most unlikely of unions.
The
opportunity was there. Yet, nothing was resolved,
nor is it likely to be for some time. Why? It’s
the process stupid. Peace processing is the defining
characteristic of Northern Irish politics. It’s
a winning formula for the politicians – why
would they change it? Why else would the eyes of
the international community ever sweep their way?
Were it not for peace processing, their limited
talents would only guarantee them an appearance
on the White House lawn as grounds men.
A
more benign ear might listen to their excuses. From
the point of view of the leading unionist party,
the DUP, the major obstacle in the way to a resolution
is the lack of certainty on offer from Sinn Fein
about the future of the IRA. Gregory Campbell, MP
for Londonderry East spelt it out: ‘the problem
is we were given all sorts of clichés and
all sorts of assurances, other people have been
down that route before and we are not prepared to
go down that route.’ It is a fair point which
has been substantially rewarded at the polls.
For
Sinn Fein, the problem is unwillingness by the DUP
to share power and a hankering for a return to unionist
majority rule. Party leader Gerry Adams, claimed,
'the IRA is not the problem. It's an unwillingness
of elements of political unionism to embrace a process
of change.' It is an allegation that meets less
intellectual resistance than when hurled at Trimble’s
UUP. Armed with such logic Sinn Fein too have performed
remarkably well at the ballot box.
In
seeking to bridge the gap there is no effective
sanction the British government can employ against
the parties if they continue to fail to find agreement,
and which would would have the effect of forcing
them into agreement mode. But all options need not
be punitive. After Leeds Tony Blair claimed ‘we
can resolve the issue of paramilitary activity and
an end to all violence.’ The Dublin Justice
Minister Michael McDowell added that the IRA was
no longer engaged in financial improprieties in
the Republic. If, as is implicit in their words,
the IRA’s existence is the only illegality
it is involved in why then do the two governments
not legalise the body and allow it to function as
a veterans’ association? The disbandment issue
would immediately drop from the agenda. The DUP
would then either be deprived of the argument for
not going into government based on Sinn Fein’s
links to an illegal body, or alternatively be provided
with the excuse it may need for going in.
Are
the governments up to seizing the initiative? If
they are honest about the IRA effectively leaving
the stage they can hardly lose by narrowing down
the obstructive options available to the North’s
two main political forces. If, as is more likely,
they continue to value ambiguity over clarity, they
will not move to legalise the IRA for fear of facing
considerable embarrassment down the line if the
'legal, peaceful and disarmed' group is found once
again to be using illegal armed force. That leaves
London and Dublin staring at the paradoxical option
of having to bluff, bounce and blindside the unionists
into an agreement on the terms the DUP won the leadership
within unionism for having rejected.
