Decommissioning,
like peace process, to which it is inextricably
linked, is a term that has bored Northern Ireland
politics watchers witless. This explains the relief
amongst observers, as distinct from the jubilation,
which accompanied the IRA surrendering 'all' its
arsenal. The only people still believing that no
decommissioning in fact took place, that it was
all a clever ruse to pull the wool over the eyes
of the 'enemies of the peace process', are members
of the IRA's flat earth department. They staked
their reputations on their own predictions that
decommissioning was a no-no. Their reputations now
have the same value as their predictions. It is
the strangest of ironies that sheep fail to see
their own wool.
The
Sinn Fein leadership, which of course runs the IRA,
had just about squeezed as much capital out of the
decommissioning issue as it was likely to. After
three years of 'acts' of decommissioning which still
managed to leave the IRA in control of the bulk
of its arsenal, the tipping point was reached. It
came in that crucial two-month period that saw the
implosion of the ostensible deal between Adams'
Sinn Fein and Paisley's DUP that was meant to re-establish
the power sharing executive, followed by the IRA
robbery of the Northern Bank, and then the murder
of Robert McCartney by members of Sinn Fein and
the IRA. From that point on, holding the decommissioning
card without moving to play it was a risky venture,
always subject to the law of diminishing returns.
Knowing
that the tedium was a serious turn off the Sinn
Fein leader, Gerry Adams, had in April moved to
inject some sex appeal into the decommissioning
process by looking into the mirror and calling on
the IRA to behave exclusively democratically. An
ennui saturated public, exhausted by the endless
striptease, showed little sign of being aroused.
The IRA's response came in two phases. In July it
disrobed from the waist up and undertook to end
all activity. In October, it laid itself bare by
surrendering its war making capacity. In spite of
loud cries, pleasurable moans and ecstatic shouts
of gratification filling the media airways, there
was the distinct sense that the climax was faked.
The vital aphrodisiac, trust, was absent. What might
have purchased trust years earlier is now a devalued
currency. Hence the recent statement by Adams on
Ulster Television that the 'war is over' is as useful
as a pint of last years milk. When on the same programme
he denied ever having been a member of the IRA,
it was not because he is a pathological liar addicted
to falsehoods. His reasoning is much more strategic
than that. It ensures that unionism will continually
adopt the Paxman stance when dealing with him: 'why
is this lying bastard lying to me?'
Ensuring
that the unionists can never acquire enough trust
is a central plank of Sinn Fein strategy. The aim
is to ensure that no deal is secured and unionism
takes the blame for it. Unionism then has the challenge
of deconstructing a widespread perception that it
is hard to handle and easy to blame.
That
Sinn Fein is still not in government despite the
'historic' moves made by its leadership is therefore
not the setback for the party that some analysts
think, or Sinn Fein would have you believe. The
stasis suits Sinn Fein fine, because for the party
it is only a stasis for the two governments, not
for itself. Political stasis in the North of Ireland
means there will always be a need for a peace process
that holds the potential to bring the stasis to
an end. And peace processing not power sharing is
what Sinn Fein is about.
The
interminable peace process then fuels Sinn Fein's
expansionist strategy throughout Ireland as a whole.
It keeps Mr Adams political profile high at a time
when Sinn Fein economic policy is being ridiculed,
calling into question its claim to be a party fit
for government. It helps his bogus claims to have
been involved in a lifetime of peace work go largely
unchallenged as he works to recast himself as an
international statesman. For those familiar with
his form, his traipsing around the world offering
counsel on human rights, poverty eradication and
democracy, may indeed exude the clumsy imagery of
Frankenstein performing ballet, but the degree of
public exposure and profile it affords Adams is
a priceless commodity particularly in the Republic
of Ireland's political market place where no shortage
of charlatans are on hand to sell snake oil.
One
thing to ponder in all of this is what approach
will the prime minister after David Cameron take
to the Northern Irish peace process?
