With
the whole 'Da Vinci Code' hype going on, conspiracy
theories are ten a penny. However some things are
more than mere coincidence and do point to something
real however far fetched it may at first glance
appear.
For
some time now I have watched the shifts and turns
within politicised, organised unionism. Unionism
has witnessed a titanic struggle over its long term
leadership over the past decade. It now seems that
Ian Paisley is the unchallenged master of all he
surveys. But he is eighty years old. Even he can't
endure forever (can he?). The big question staring
everyone in the face is 'what happens next?' All
kinds of rumours and speculation abound. Will it
be Robinson? - Probably! Will it be Dodds? - possibly!
Will it be Allister? - Probably not! Will it be
Donaldson? - not the faintest chance!
I
believe that while we have concentrated on questions
like this, something else has been taking shape
that may well render the whole exercise pointless
in that it won't really matter who eventually succeeds
Paisley.
Already
the manoeuvres taking place within Unionism have
caught some observant eyes. John
Coulter writing in 'The Blanket' has drawn attention
to part of the picture beginning to take shape.
However Coulter has missed one vital linkage that
makes his analysis, while valuable, still partial
and somewhat skewed in the wrong direction. Coulter
identities four DUP MLA's as indicators as to how
that party will go. His conclusions are understandable,
but flawed.
The
four names I want to mention are, in no particular
order: George Dawson MLA and Mervyn Storey MLA (as
Coulter correctly says), but also (and here is the
vital ingredient that Coulter has missed), David
Simpson MP and Pastor David McConaghie. Their interconnectedness,
collective approach and shared involvements allow
us to see the emergence of a new ruling elite within
unionism - not based upon class, or wealth, or even
party allegiance, but based simply upon their own
shared and archly conservative religious agenda.
Consider
the following:
Dawson,
Storey and McConaghie are all prominent members
of the Independent Loyal Orange Order; with Dawson
as the Grand Master and the other two as senior
Lieutenants. Whenever the leadership of the three
Loyal Orders have met recently with government etc,
it was Dawson who did the speaking, even though
the IOO is by far the smallest of the three. When
he was unable to attend, who filled in for him?
McConaghie and again he did most of the talking
at the shared press conference (and as I understand
from Orange sources, most of the talking in the
actual meetings themselves). Let us not forget that
it was Dawson, McConaghie and Storey who led the
Protests against former Grand Master Martin Smyth
over the Prayer Breakfast, yet now they speak on
behalf of the Orange Order in public.
These
three are also senior officers in the Caleb Foundation
- which ties together the main Evangelical denominations
in a single campaigning unit. Whenever the Civic
Forum was established who represented these churches
on it? McConaghie!
Dawson
and McConaghie are also members of the ruling committee
of the Evangelical Protestant Society, behind the
'Bulwark' magazine. The Society has significant
influence not only in the Evangelical denominations,
but actually more so in the historic Protestant
Churches. When the GB based United Protestant Council
split recently over the issue of Loyal Order membership,
what happened? A new organisation was formed with
the EPS (and hence Dawson and McConaghie) as the
key central body.
Dawson
and Storey are also MLA's in the NI Assembly and
here is the other not widely known factor; McConaghie,
as well as having been David Simpson's campaign
manager who plotted the overthrow Trimble in Upper
Bann, has remained as his 'chief of staff'/press
officer/speech writer.
Let
us look at Simpson's Westminster record. Which MP
has majored on an inquiry into paedophile priests?
Simpson! Which MP has majored on opposing civil
partnerships for gays? Simpson! Which MP has majored
on campaigning for creationism to be brought into
school science classes? Simpson! When it comes to
tabling written questions about Loyal Order issues
it hasn't been the DUP leader (Paisley), deputy
leader (Robinson) or party secretary (Dodds) who
has led the way, but the new boy, Simpson! Storey
and Dawson have noticeably NOT picked up and used
for press releases the Parliamentary contributions
of any other DUP MP, but noticeably HAVE done precisely
that with Simpson's! Issues peculiar to both North
Antrim (lignite mining) and East Antrim (Coolkeeragh
power station) have conveniently found themselves
onto Simpson's list of Parliamentary concerns. Obviously
a high level of co-ordination is taking place.
Simpson
is of course the man who whupped Trimble. He is
also a senior party officer of the DUP. His relationship
with McConaghie ties him in with Dawson and Storey.
Ah but that is not all; all three - Simpson, Dawson
and Storey have somehow, conveniently managed to
get themselves placed onto the DUP economy group
to tackle the most important issues we shall face
in the near future - despite Storey not coming from
that kind of background. Thus all three (and given
McConaghie's relationship with each, all four) shall
oversee the DUP's entire approach to trade and investment,
economic competitiveness and job creation.
On
another front; I have already alluded to the recent
coming together of the Loyal Orders under Dawson's
leadership (just as the Caleb Foundation brought
the evangelicals together under him). Are we to
believe that just as the Loyal Orders are making
their pitch for the replacement of the Parades Commission
- led by Dawson, that at that very time Simpson
should just happen go public about the Don McKay
appointment, in the process ensure that one of his
own lesser party colleagues would face the drop
and as a result put the Secretary of State in a
flap? Hardly!
Are
we to believe that the lines of association between
these four that link together the Loyal Orders,
the Caleb Foundation, the EPS, the new GB umbrella
group, the top tiers of the DUP and the various
Protestant churches, is somehow all just coincidence?
Puhleeaaze!
Just
for a moment cast an eye over the political casualties
- Gardiner Kane MLA (North Antrim: originally selected
ahead of Storey but then set aside owing to personal
difficulties); Roger Hutchinson MLA (East Antrim:
originally selected ahead of Dawson but again set
aside owing to personal difficulties); Mervyn Carrick
MLA (Upper Bann: toppled as Parliamentary candidate
by Simpson and then replaced as MLA); Denis Watson
(Upper Bann: The most senior Orangeman in representative
politics after Martin Smyth - the same Martin Smyth
Dawson, McConaghie and Storey had targeted previously
- left without a seat at the Assembly; defeated
by Stephen Moutray, Simpson's closest political
ally and Dawson's life long friend.). Long standing
activists and newly acquired high profile scalps
all went the same way.
In
the very near future we may expect these four to
focus their attention on further political advances.
There are several vacancies that will shortly arise.
First there is North Antrim. Either Dawson or Storey
could have a tilt at replacing big Ian. More likely,
that it shall be left to Jim Allister to wield the
knife. This will leave the way clear for either
Dawson, or as I believe, Storey to set his sights
on Europe. Dawson is said to already have his eye
on at least a junior ministry in any new Executive
and so is likely to find South Belfast a much more
attractive proposition. Let's face it Jimmy Spratt
has all but disappeared since the election and Dawson's
business background and ability to sound reasonable
to the middle classes would make him sure to trounce
any hapless UUP candidate and unseat the SDLP. McConaghie
is not thought to have any ambition for elected
office, but if that were to change, Paul Berry's
seat would be a cinch. The financial clout afforded
by Simpson's business concerns, his popularity with
the grass roots and high standing within the party
as the man who bludgeoned Trimble into oblivion
mean that he shall continue to exert considerable
influence for years to come.
Let
us look at it from another direction. From their
collective vantage point who do they jointly pull
together within the party? Each of them can appeal
to the Free Presbyterian faction which includes
people like Willie McCrea, Maurice Morrow, the two
Dodds', Jim Allister, Gregory Campbell and Edwin
Poots. Through the Independent Orange they have
a second means of influencing Campbell. Through
the new joint Loyal Order initiative they can attract
the entire cross section of Loyal Order members.
Via Dawson and Simpson's business connections they
have pull when it comes to Robin Newton. As Sammy
Wilson's Campaign Manager, here too Dawson has a
close connection. No other senior party figure can
boast a stronger collection of party heavyweights
from right across the various sections of the DUP
than these four.
It
seems clear that the gang of four have created an
interlocking power base for themselves that takes
in all parts of the unionist community. The question
is why? The most likely answer is in order to advance
the very conservative fundamentalist brand of unionist
politics that will keep the flame of Paisleyism
burning whenever he has passed the way of all flesh.
(This is further testified to by the fact that McConaghie
is known to have recently severed his links with
the Elim Churches and thrown his lot in with the
Free Presbyterians, just like the other three.)
It
may be that these four are preparing for the day
when their great leader is no longer present and
the force of his personality is gone. In their shoes
one might reasonably conclude that now was the time
to set about ensuring that no matter who might replace
Paisley nominally, they would continue to hold enough
levers of power to bend that person to their collective
will.
None
of these four men has been mentioned as a possible
leader of the DUP, although all three of the elected
politicians have been tipped to rise quite rapidly
over the next few years. However as with the Pope
having jurisdiction over the temporal ruler, it
really doesn't matter how many leaders come and
go, so long as you pull their strings.
The
next few years will prove to be interesting to outside
observers, but also critical for society. If these
four - Simpson, Dawson, Storey and McConaghie continue
to expand their sphere of influence quietly in the
background they could well emerge as the puppet
masters of unionism.
It
could be that this is just another conspiracy theory,
but surely too many pieces fit too snugly together
for it all to just be a matter of chance.
What
do you think?
