The
coming weeks are going to be interesting and crucial
for Northern Ireland. The DUP are difficult to
read, the different strains within that political
party make it very unpredictable. Sinn Fein, in
contrast, is an open book and is very easy to
read; the days of Sinn Fein being able to dictate
are long gone. They rely to a small part upon
the Irish Government for support, although this
support today is muted by internal 26 county political
considerations. Today, Sinn Fein relies almost
entirely for protection and support in its attempts
to become re-involved in a British administration
upon the British Government.
In a
recent newspaper piece Sean O` Callaghan makes
the following point:
'If
someone in the IRA had told me that in a decade
the republican movement would be sitting in
a Stormont assembly, effectively administering
British rule, accepting the principle of no
constitutional change without unionist consent
and getting ready to sign up to recognize a
Northern Ireland police force, I would have
advised them to shut up because they risked
being shot for treason. Yet all of that is about
to come to pass. Unionists, whoever they are,
would be mad to say no. "Deal or No Deal?"
I would say grab with both hands'.
The mistake that O `Callaghan and others are making
with this appeal for the Unionists to grasp the
present deal with both arms is the DUP are not
the UUP and will not be bullied or cajoled like
O` Callaghan’s employer, the former UUP leader
Lord Trimble. The DUP know that Sinn Fein and
the Republican movement have been nothing short
of a British Government inspired and funded terrorist
organization for the last thirty odd years. The
mistake O`Callaghan makes is one which the DUP
are savvy to. They realize that the Republican
movement is not at its knees today, begging to
be allowed to administer British rule by a overwhelming
willingness of the IRA to capitulate and totally
decommission. No, they understand fully why the
IRA was defeated and the cause of Irish nationalism
set back at least one generation: the corruption
of the Sinn Fein leadership and the fabric of
that organization defeated those loyal and principled
men and women prepared to fight and die for a
United Ireland.
The DUP are presently teasing the British Government
with requests for further information about the
activities of both Adams and McGuinness. Ian Paisley
Jnr has recently asked the Chief Constable to
make a statement to the policing board about the
revelation about Gerry Adams' fingerprints being
linked to a vehicle used in the murder of two
police officers. The interesting fact here is
Gerry Adams was not even questioned about this
forensic discovery for decades. The police sat
on this material for over twenty years. WHY? Hugh
Orde should be asked to account for this apparent
oversight. The chances of the historical enquiries
team mounting a successful prosecution against
anybody, let alone Adams, is less than Chelsea
being relegated from the premiership. Cast your
mind back to the many people of all factions who
were sentenced for offences during this conflict
for much less than your fingerprints being found
upon a murder vehicle.
This
offence is many years old, but the DUP will tease
the Government about this and other activities,
like the human bomb strategies, and also about
the decision to save Gerry Adams' life when the
Loyalists targeted him on a number of occasions.
The DUP are going to tease both Adams and the
British Government but when the final day of reckoning
comes, Gerry will be a honored DUP guest on the
top table; after all, he and Martin have managed
to do exactly what the DUP wanted and achieved
a British administration in a sovereign recognized
state, recognized by the IRA and the Government
of the Irish Republic. Those of us who remember
“Not an ounce not a bullet,” “The
right of all Irishmen and women to bear arms against
the British occupation will always be enshrined
within Republicanism,” “We will achieve
a united Ireland by 2016,” etc., well, what
a load of codswallop that turned out to be. We
could list a hundred false promises but Republicans
can and do list them better than me. Only last
week, according
to the Sunday Times, Adams said this about
a policing issue in the Ballymurphy area of Belfast:
Gerry Adams, the Sinn Fein president, "advised
people affected by a violent dispute in Ballymurphy
last week to go to the police (PSNI). But his
party officially says it will fully support policing
only when powers are devolved".
It
is no wonder many in West Belfast refer to Sinn
Fein as the party of contradictions. I would love
to have a front row seat at the special “Policing”
Ard Fheis because I believe that will be an interesting
event, as would the type of BMW and Mercedes motor
cars parked outside.
In respect to Martin McGuinness. Ian
Paisley Jnr made this point recently in the press
about the forthcoming talks (according to
The Observer): "More controversy will
be injected into the talks this week when Paisley's
son Ian junior raises a touchy subject for republicans
with Blair. He will ask if it is true that Martin
McGuinness is the British agent inside the republican
movement known as 'J118.' The Sinn Fein MP strenuously
denies the allegation, claiming it to be a work
of malevolent DUP faction aimed at undermining
him".
The issue of Martin McGuinness being protected
by the British state is well documented and universally
accepted primarily because we have the accepted
leak of the secret documents. Operation Taurus
is clear; McGuinness was a protected species at
a time when McGuinness was winding the war down
in areas he controlled. There are many other issues
connecting McGuinness to his role in defeating
the IRA from within. Now is not the time to dissect
McGuinness—he can wait—the bigger issue
here is the future of Irish Nationalism within
the structures that we have in place today, and
what we can reasonably expect to be in place for
the forthcoming future.
Do I believe the DUP will agree to Sinn Fein re-entering
the assembly this year, and do I believe Sinn
Fein will endorse policing? The reality on the
ground is Sinn Fein have already accepted and
to a certain degree become involved in the PSNI
policing of Nationalist areas. Not long ago, they
were seen handing out PSNI literature and as Adams
says to his followers and constituents, “
Go to the Police”. That deal is done, no
matter how it is wrapped and presented.
The
DUP question is not as clear-cut. My heart tells
me the DUP will cut a deal, but my brain, based
upon experience, says differently. After all,
why should Paisley change his natural and consistent
position in the twilight of life, except to occupy
the seat of First Minister alongside Martin McGuinness?
Why should he swim against many in his party who
would find it difficult to share power even within
a British administration with Catholics? No, on
balance I think the ingrained bigotry will win
through. Blair is in trouble and he and his Governments
have delivered the IRA and Nationalism upon a
platter to Unionism. The DUP will sit tight and
play hard ball with the Government, after all
the war is over, the IMC have made that clear
recently, the IRA they say has been dismantled
and any backward move would be evidence enough
to say I told you so. This is a win/win situation.
They will argue that constitutional politics free
from interference and private armies should be
the order of the day; Fianna Fail makes a similar
position south of the border seem reasonable,
and the DUP will continue to reflect the opinion
and wishes of the majority of unionists in Northern
Ireland who are, let's be honest, bigoted.
'The
supreme irony is that if republicans, and more
to the point their employer, the British Government,
hadn't messed about when the last power-sharing
government was in place they would have had the
UUP lock stock and smoking barrel as the leading
force in unionism, and one that would have done
the deal with Sinn Fein, with or without Jeffrey
Donaldson. Trimble was always weak and easily
manipulated but they had the golden opportunity
to slam-dunk this deal and they failed. Only time
will tell if that becomes a real turning point
in NI affairs. One thing is certain though, the
long term future of NI will not be decided by
Ahern, Adams, Blair, McGuinness or indeed Paisley.
Everyone of those mentioned will shortly leave
this stage, some permanently and some to a comfortable
retirement. All in all, a job well done, lads,
but please do not try to take the piss once more
with a re-formed NI offences bill. Thank You.
