Move
your big Northern guns into the South – that's
how the Shinners will stand any chance of notching
up between a dozen to 15 seats in 2007's Dail
elections.
One
of the latest significant opinion polls in the
Republic has Bertie Ahern's Fianna Fail coalition
with the Progressive Democrats at 46 per cent.
The
same poll has the so-called Rainbow Coalition
of Fine Gael, Labour, the Greens and Independents
also at a combined total of 46 per cent. The Sinn
Fein tally at this point is 8 per cent –
potentially enough to guarantee Ahern another
term if he dumped the PD's in favour of the Shinners.
And
changing the Shinners' choice of nominee for Northern
Deputy First Minister from Martin McGuinness to
the 'squeaky clean' – in Provo terms –
Mitchel McLaughlin will surely wipe the eye of
the Paisley camp over the allegiance oath on policing
– as well as win additional middle class
Catholic voters in the South.
Then
again, if the Shinners do swear an oath to support
law and order, the cops and the Policing Board,
why not go the whole hog and take the oath of
allegiance at Westminster and take their five
Commons seats?
If
the Scottish and Welsh nationalists, the SDLP,
as well as the anti-monarchists and republicans
within Labour can take their seats, why can't
Sinn Fein take the politically moral step and
take a Commons oath? It would fend off criticism
the republican party is being hypocritical for
taking Commons expenses, but not its seats.
However,
the problem with McGuinness as Deputy nominee
at Stormont is not his skills as a Sinn Fein negotiator,
but that he was once the self-confessed second
in command of the Provos in Derry. Then there's
all the as yet unproven and unfounded allegations
of the Mid Ulster MP being a British agent like
the former – and now murdered – Sinn
Fein Stormont chief Denis Donaldson.
In
Unionists eyes, McLaughlin has no track records
with the IRA. In Sinn Fein eyes, where does this
senior Shinner go now that SDLP boss Mark Durkan
has firmly secured the Foyle Westminster seat
– especially if the SDLP does the smart thing
and merges with Fianna Fail?
There's
been a lot of gossip – especially in dissident
republican circles – that South Down MLA
Caitriona Ruane – another 'squeaky clean'
Shinner – could also be a replacement nominee
for McGuinness.
But
that would leave a massive gap in South Down where
Ruane has been building a fairly impressive power
base waiting for SDLP stalwart Eddie McGrady to
retire.
Once
Auld Eddie hands in his political chips, the Commons
seat is bound to slip into the Shinners' paws
just as Connor Murphy snatched neighbouring Newry
and Armagh when former SDLP deputy leader Seamus
Mallon retired.
Mind
you, don't rule out the bold Connor as a dark
horse nominee for Deputy should the Sinn Fein
leadership decide to 'retire' Martin from the
race to save the St Andrews Agreement.
But
the last thing the Shinners want is to fight two
elections on the island next year – the Dail
General Election and an Assembly election. That
would prove an enormous drain on Sinn Fein's funds.
The
Shinners have five Dail seats, but apart from
parachuting MEP Mary Lou McDonald into Dublin
Central, the party badly needs the use of some
Northern cannons to even pass the 10-seat mark,
let alone chalk up 15.
With
15 seats, the Shinners could be in a strong bargaining
position to negotiate with Taioseach Ahern about
forming a coalition government with Fianna Fail,
and persuading Bertie to dump the Progressive
Democrats.
Assuming
the five existing Sinn Fein TD's all hold their
seats, it would be logical to send the following
Westminster MPs into battle – McGuinness
in Donegal South West; Pat Doherty into Sligo/Leitrim,
Murphy
into Tipperary North; Michelle Gildernew into
Tipperary South, and Sinn Fein president Gerry
Adams into Galway West.
The
remaining five seats would come from Southern
locals. As well as McDonald in Dublin Central,
my dosh would be on Padraig MacLochlainn in Donegal
North East; Sean McManus in Sligo/Leitrim; Jonathan
O'Brien in Cork North Central, and Gerry Murray
in Mayo.
JOHN
COULTER'S SINN FEIN CHOICE FOR TD IN THE 2007
DAIL
- Caoimhghin
O Caolain TD, Cavan/Monaghan;
- Arthur
Morgan TD, Louth;
- Aengus
O Snodaigh TD, Dublin South Central;
- Sean
Crowe TD, Dublin South West;
- Martin
Ferris TD, Kerry;
- Padraig
MacLochlainn, Donegal county councillor and
Buncrana Town councillor in Donegal North East;
- Martin
McGuinness MP MLA, Donegal South West;
- Mary
Lou McDonald MEP, Dublin Central;
- Sean
McManus, Sligo Borough councillor in Sligo/Leitrim;
- Pat
Doherty MP MLA in Sligo/Leitrim;
- Conor
Murphy MP MLA in Tipperary North;
- Michelle
Gildernew MP MLA, Tipperary South;
- Gerry
Adams MP MLA, Galway West;
- Jonathan
O'Brien, councillor, Cork North Central;
- Gerry
Murray, councillor, Mayo.
